Best Bets - Week 6 Totals
October 12, 2017
By Heritage Sports
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NFL Week 6 Best Bets – Totals
There are a lot of NFL games this week with rather large point spreads and for totals players that always gives you a few questions to ponder. Will those big favorites dominate their respective opponents, get a big lead and then shut it down late? Or will these underdogs come out and put up a fight on the scoreboard to force these big favorites to execute down the stretch to beat them? Could it end up being anything in-between?
Totals players know those are relevant questions because in cases where the big favorites dominate from start to finish, they tend to speed the game up late, run the ball, bleed the clock, and the 'under' eventually comes in. But if the big underdog is matching them score for score for a big chunk of the game, of even if these big favorites find themselves down at halftime or beyond, they tend to kick it into high gear offensively and points come in flurries. That's better news for 'over' bettors and given all the games we've got on the card this week, chances are we see a handful of games play out in one of those two scenarios.
With that in mind, there are two games this week with spreads of -6 or greater where I do believe the underdog will do their part in terms of contributing points – one way on another – to help their respective totals surpass the number.
Odds per - HeritageSports.eu
Best Bet #1: Miami/Atlanta Over 46
The Miami Dolphins have been one of the NFL's worst offenses this entire season as they've yet to score 20 or more points in any of their four games and have gone 0-4 O/U as a result. HC Adam Gase has called out his offense on multiple occasions already this year and the Jay Cutler experiment hasn't exactly worked out as planned. But after a month of dealing with a brutal travel schedule and other issues thanks to the Hurricane, this Dolphins offense had better step up soon, especially this week in Atlanta against the high-powered Falcons attack coming off their bye.
Everyone knows how explosive the Falcons offense can be, and while they are a little banged up with WR's Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu nursing injuries, Jones should be a go on Sunday, and they've still got two dynamic RB's to rely on. The week of rest gave Atlanta ample time to do some self-scouting after their offense stumbled against Buffalo last time out, and although this Dolphins defense is tough as they've not allowed more than 20 points against this year, if there is a team to break that streak it would be these Falcons. Atlanta is 3-1 O/U after their bye week the last four years, are on an 12-1 O/U run at home, and 5-1 O/U after an outright loss.
But for this total of 46 to be surpassed, Miami is going to have to do their part offensively and I believe they will. Miami is 6-1 O/U after allowing less than 15 points their last time out, and quite frankly they've got to come into this contest with the mindset of being overly aggressive and be willing to take shots down the field. A full month facing live bullets in this new system has been more than enough time for Cutler to grasp the offense and start letting it loose, and with an 8-3 O/U run after an outright victory, Miami's offense is in a good spot to finally score 20+.
Atlanta's defense hasn't been that good all eyar long, and with 23 or more allowed in their last three games, this game has all the potential to be a 28-21 type game, more than enough to eclipse this total. And with VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers showing more than 85% of the action on this total coming in on the low side – in large part to Miami's anemic offense – I've got no problem being in the minority on an 'over' play in an Atlanta Falcons home game.
Odds per - HeritageSports.eu
Best Bet #2: Chicago/Baltimore Over 39.5
The Mitchell Trubisky era in Chicago officially began last Monday night and he definitely adds a different level of playmaking ability to the Bears offense then they had with Mike Glennon under center. Trubisky's ability to extend plays with his feet, throw from out of the pocket, and his “gunslinger” mentality was on full display against the Vikings on Monday night, and Chicago will need him to show those same attributes this week in Baltimore.
But Trubisky is still a rookie QB in this league and will make plenty of mistakes as we saw during crunch time on Monday. His affinity for taking shots and throwing into tight windows will either lead to the Bears moving up and down the field to put up points, or give Baltimore's offense short fields to score their own. After all, this Chicago defense is allowing 32 points per game on the road this year and both opponents scored at least 29.
Baltimore's offense started to make the most of their opportunities a week ago in Oakland, and with a bad Bears road defense in town this week, Joe Flacco and company should continue that success. This is also one of those non-conference games that tend to lack the same intensity, physicality, and attention to detail on defense that division or even inter-conference games bring, and with Baltimore on a 6-1 O/U in the first of two consecutive games against NFC teams, this sub-40 total is a little too low not to get surpassed.
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