Best Bets - Week 6 Sides
October 12, 2017
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NFL Week 6 Best Bets – Sides
After Week 5 was loaded with point spreads in the +/- 3 range and they were justified as nine games were decided by less than a TD, Week 6 is the complete opposite with a handful of double digit favorites and many more laying 4+ points. With that many lines featuring big numbers, we will see some of these favorites win SU and lose ATS as opposed to last week's results where the outright winner likely led to an ATS winner. So the old saying that the “point spread is the great equalizer” has a bit more meaning this week.
So with that out of the way, let's get right to this week's Best Bets:
Odds per - BetDSI.eu
Best Bet #1: Baltimore Ravens -6 (-115)
The Ravens finally played a complete football game last week – their first since arguably Week 1 – when they jumped out to a 24-10 halftime lead over the Raiders and never looked back. Joe Flacco and the offense looked better than they have for the entirety of the 2017 season so far, and now they return home to face a Bears team that's been downright awful away from home this year.
Chicago made the switch to QB Mitchell Trubisky last week and he clearly looks like the guy the Bears should be going with these days. His ability to move out of the pocket and attempt to make plays is a huge plus for this offense, but he's still a rookie and will make his share of mistakes. His INT in the final few minutes on MNF cost Chicago the outright win last week, and now the rookie QB makes his first career road start against a Baltimore defense that should make life very difficult for Trubisky and the rest of the Bears offense.
Fading a rookie QB in his first career road start is a situation I look for every year and those struggles and mistakes we saw from Trubisky a week ago will only be magnified in Baltimore. Add in the fact that Chicago has lost by an average margin of 21.5 points in their two road games this year as they've allowed at least 29 points in both games away from home and this game should be a 10+ point win for the Ravens.
With the Ravens 5-2 ATS in their last seven at home and Chicago 2-8 ATS in their last 10 on the road, I've got no problem laying this number with this Baltimore team this week.
Odds per - BetDSI.eu
Best Bet #2: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-120)
Jacksonville surprised a lot of people last week (including myself) with their blowout win over the Steelers as their pass defense is for real. The Jags got 5 INT's from Roethlisberger last week, returned two of those for TD's and now sit 3rd in the league overall in pass defense in terms of yards allowed per game (177.8). They've also got some great film to study on the Rams after Seattle's defense completely shut down a L.A offense that everyone was raving about, and even though HC Gus Bradley is not in Jacksonville anymore, he initially got the job after his success as Seattle's DC for years and built Jacksonville's secondary – and defense overall – from that same Seattle blueprint. Long, athletic, physical corners are exactly what the Jags still have in their back end, and if they can thoroughly dominate a Steelers passing game with all the weapons they have, a flavor of the month offense like the Rams should meet a similar fate.
But not only am I high on the Jags for this play, this is also a great situational spot to fade the L.A Rams. Last week's home game against Seattle was a huge measuring stick for L.A where they came up short, and now they've got to fly across the country for a non-conference road game against a Jacksonville team that's playing some solid football. Add in another divisional home game against Arizona on deck for L.A, and I just don't see how they've got anywhere near the motivational level they need to seriously compete this week.
L.A is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall, 1-7 ATS off a SU loss, and 1-5 ATS after scoring less than 15 points. Meanwhile, this Jacksonville team is 4-0 ATS in their last four against a team with a winning record, have covered six of their last eight overall, and now that they currently sit in 1st place, they are finally showing the signs of a team that had been everyone's favorite preseason darling the past few years to take that next step and be a playoff contender. It looks like they are taking that step now and I want to get on board while the point spreads still don't totally reflect it.
14-1 Streak, 5-0 G-Plays, 8-1 Totals
14-3 L2 Sun., 8-2 G-Plays, +2,243
8-0 L8 G-Plays, 12-6 L18 Picks
8-1 Sun., 8-3 G-Plays, 67% +1,550
7-0 L2 Sundays, 17-5 L6 Sundays
10-3 Sun., 28-11 Run, 6-0 Totals
7 Wins in a Row, 4-1 L5 G-Plays
16-7 L5 Sundays, 62% +1,169 TY
11-4 Week 6, 30-13 L43 Totals
4-0 L2 Sundays, 9-2 L11 Picks
18-7 Record Last 4 Sundays
12-6 L3 Sun, 20-11 Run, +898 TY
12-6 L18 G-Plays, 7-2 L5 Sundays
7-3 L2 Sundays, +815 Overall
4-1 Sun., 12-7 L19, 4-2 G-Plays
4-1 L5 G-Plays, 7-2 L9 Totals
3-0 Sunday, 8-4 Over/Unders TY
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