Buyer's Remorse - Week 5
October 9, 2017
What We Learned From Week 5
A crude Thursday Night Football game led to one of the more unexpected weeks so far. This season has been absolutely bizarre, and the shenanigans continued through Week 5.
Let’s take a look at the big upsets and some of the stunning wins from Sunday.
Odds per BetOnline.ag
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers
It wasn’t just the Jaguars won this matchup, it’s how they did it. Running back Leonard Fournette pounded the Steelers with 181 yards and 2 touchdowns, making this the second time a team has run all over their hapless defense. More worrisome was Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s performance as he amassed 5 picks, two of which were returned for touchdowns in back-to-back drives.
Strangely enough, the Steelers are certainly not out of the division race so there’s plenty to play for but Pittsburgh has gone from a relatively known commodity to a totally unstable one in a matter of weeks. However, playing at Kansas City in Week 6 isn’t going to make things any easier.
Cincinnati Bengals -3 over Buffalo Bills
The oddsmakers have been trying to undersell the Bills because the expectation was that they were underperforming. The truth is that one play decided this game – the 77-yard touchdown to A.J. Green at the beginning of the game. Outside of that slip-up, the Bills accounted for three turnovers while completely stuffing the run game.
We know that the Bills are great defensively and limited offensively, but the big takeaway here is that the Bengals have gotten their act together. Dalton still threw for 328 yards and while there is no point investing in this team long-term, they do have the fourth easiest schedule according to pre-season rankings. For now, they’re a worthy week-to-week look depending on the matchup.
New York Jets +1.5 over Cleveland Browns
Josh McCown revenge games are a thing, I guess.
Miami Dolphins -1 over Tennessee Titans
Anyone who bet on this game was asking for trouble. I guess it’s cool that Miami won? They beat Matt Cassel. Do you really care?
Carolina Panthers +2.0 over Detroit Lions
The death of Cam Newton was greatly exaggerated. Throwing for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns against a decent secondary says enough, especially when the Panthers collected just 28 yards on the ground. And their defense was awesome against a Detroit offense that attacked it relentlessly from all angles.
One of the big concerns for Detroit is the fact that they can’t seem to get a lead. They’ve trailed the Cardinals and Falcons as well by massive differentials, which makes them a gut wrenching play that’s still only worth taking with tight lines. The Lions weren’t a bad play by any stretch. We just didn’t know that Carolina would pull everything together after a soft start.
L.A. Chargers +3 over New York Giants
Losing wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Marshall and Sterling Sheppard throughout the game was brutal. All of them seem like they’re going to be out for a long time, if not the season. For what it’s worth, the Giants were working the ball downfield well until all of their passing weapons were sent to the graveyard. Great win for the Chargers, and a loss for the Giants that is immeasurable. Can’t wait to see the line on Giants-Broncos for Week 6. It’s going to be huge.
Seattle Seahawks +2 over Los Angeles Rams
Jarod Goff and Todd Gurley finally came back to earth against the Seahawks. This was a huge must-win for the Rams, who are now tied for the lead in the NFC West by win-loss. Both teams are about equal – erratic offensive outputs combined with fantastic defensive units that outplay their statistical metrics. I can’t wait to see how this rivalry plays out later in the season. Considering the overwhelming parity of the season, both teams will always have a fighting chance. The main difference is that Seattle remains a public team that sometimes faces inflated lines.
Green Bay Packers +2.5 over Dallas Cowboys
Aaron Rodgers finally has the running-back he deserves in the form of rookie Aaron Jones, who ran for 125 yards and 1 touchdown. But this game was more about Dallas’s porous, injury riddled defense that now ranks 29th in the league in points allowed with 26.4. They’ve now given up three points to the hapless Giants, 17 to the Cardinals and 42, 35 and 35 in their three other games. Hopefully the bye week gets them sorted out
Sam Bradford makes his return and Mitchell Trubisky debuts in the Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup as the Vikings visit the Bears! Check out the lines at BetOnline.ag!
14-1 Streak, 5-0 G-Plays, 8-1 Totals
14-3 L2 Sun., 8-2 G-Plays, +2,243
8-0 L8 G-Plays, 12-6 L18 Picks
8-1 Sun., 8-3 G-Plays, 67% +1,550
7-0 L2 Sundays, 17-5 L6 Sundays
10-3 Sun., 28-11 Run, 6-0 Totals
7 Wins in a Row, 4-1 L5 G-Plays
16-7 L5 Sundays, 62% +1,169 TY
11-4 Week 6, 30-13 L43 Totals
4-0 L2 Sundays, 9-2 L11 Picks
18-7 Record Last 4 Sundays
12-6 L3 Sun, 20-11 Run, +898 TY
12-6 L18 G-Plays, 7-2 L5 Sundays
7-3 L2 Sundays, +815 Overall
4-1 Sun., 12-7 L19, 4-2 G-Plays
4-1 L5 G-Plays, 7-2 L9 Totals
3-0 Sunday, 8-4 Over/Unders TY
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